The worst is already showing its face

The political logic of the coming months in Spain will be one of extreme polarization, with a whiff of the 1930's: on the one hand, a three-headed and mobilized right, decanted towards the new populist authoritarianism; to the other, the left and the nationalist and independence parties, around a PSOE that will try to build a dam with strong foundations in the socio-electoral center.

The municipal, European and regional elections (in most regions) in May will be the first combat, preparatory to the general elections. In this context, ERC and the PDECat (and / or Junts per Catalunya or La Crida) will have to make very important decisions, beyond the position on general budgets.

In the independence world, there is a very active current that organizes all ideas from a fatalism according to which neither the strategy nor the skill itself does not matter because the adversary applies force and trap by system. There is a historical and empirical basis for thinking like that, certainly. But this approach has two problems when doing politics.

The first is to relativize the responsibility of the independentist camp and be self-indulgent. The second is the conclusion reached from fatalism: the only way is unilateralism, the peaceful insurrectional scenario, what some -with frivolity- relate to a Catalan version of the Maidan; I recommend that the ideologues of the "pit i collons" (breast and balls) watch the documentary Winter on Fire - available on Netflix - about the democratic and pro-European revolt of the winter 2013-14 in the Ukrainian capital, and ask yourself if Catalan society today has the same level of consensus and strategic unity to take this road, which was victorious but included dead and wounded, because of the violence exercised by the Pro-russian authorities.

The "the worse, the better" seduces these environments.

Those who do not share this vision, mainly the leadership of ERC, some leaders of PDECat, and Òmnium, know that the worst is already coming, and it is a future government of the PP, Cs and Vox.

"We do not have to save Sánchez, we have to do independence", retort those who are in a hurry.

In all the analyzes of the Maidan spokesmen, it is always obvious that the independence movement does not have a sufficiently large social majority to promote the open clash with the State, an option that has little to do with demonstrating each Day.

Everything is reduced to a problem of courage and determination, without wanting to see, for example, that the Seat of Martorell has not followed any strike organized by sovereignty.

It is said that parking the unilateral route greatly reduces the negotiation margin of a referendum agreed with Madrid.

In reality, what reduces it is the stagnation of the independence vote, the strategic disorientation, the gesticulation, and the lack of new leaderships.

Meanwhile, the worst - for Spaniards and Catalans - is no longer an abstract idea.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/opinion/20181231/453832136458/lo-peor-ya-tiene-cara.html