Vicente Serrano
PRISONERS OF A REFERENDUM
The problem is that you can vote for what you have the
competence to vote for. Let's see. It is affirmed, on the part of the
national-Catalanism, that Catalonia has the right to decide if it wants to be
an independent State. It is as if the Spaniards except the Catalans could vote
if they expel Catalonia from Spain. Those of Charnego
news have made acid
comments about it. Let's say you can not marginalize Extremadura from a
decision that affects them (their expulsion from Spain), as you can not
marginalize non-Catalan Spaniards from the decision to segregate a part of Spain.
In both cases it is obviously a segregation of the poor.
Catalan referenda
In Catalonia, since the Transition, there have been
four referenda about the autonomy. Two were legal and two illegal. Of the legal ones the first one was carried
out in 1979 to approve the Statute, in which almost 60% of the census
participated − apparently it didn’t generate great enthusiasm − imagine that it
had been demanded, as determined by the Constitution of the Second
Spanish Republic, two thirds of the
census for approval. The second referendum was convened in 2006 to approve the
reform of the Statute; the participation did not reach 49% of the census. It
seems that the subject didn’t motivate more than half of the population.
Of the two illegal referenda, there are no official data
on the Generalitat's website − even those who convened them considered them
illegal! In the first, the famous
vote of November 9, 2014, the
participation, not certified, was just over 36%. The results of the second, the
referendum of October 1st , 2017 are more than questionable and, although
Wikipedia speaks of 43% as unverified data, it is evident that such data are false
(we could speak of the mobilization of up to 400,000 people, but even that data
may be inflated)
Other Catalan referenda
We the Catalans have participated in four more
referenda that affected all Spaniards, all of them legal. In the first one,
that about the Law for Political Reform of 1976, 74% of the Catalan census
participated, surpassing 93% of votes in favour. The following one, that of the
Constitution, in 1978, had a participation of almost 70%, a 0.8 greater than in
the whole of Spain and obtained 90.5% of votes in favour, exceeding by two and
a half points the national average.
The third one referendum was held in 1986 on the
permanence of Spain in NATO. The participation at the national level exceeded
59% of the census − 57% of votes were affirmative. In Catalonia, participation
was almost 63% with a majority of negative votes − almost 54%.
The fourth one, in 2005 on the European Constitution,
exceeded the 42% of participation, with almost 82% of votes favorable.
In Catalonia, participation fell to 41% and the affirmative votes were 64%
What is a referendum for?
We should ask ourselves this question before committing
ourselves to ask for a referendum, since sometimes its results are not so
decisive as to make the decision the most democratic. According to the results,
it can be said that among the 8 referenda, there are two in which the interest
of the Catalans in participating could clearly be seen − the one about of the
Political Reform and the one on the Constitution, with a participation greater
than or equal to 70%. We could recognize some legitimacy to the referendum on
the Statute of 1979, with 60% participation. But the other referenda were of no
utility, at least in order to discern the will of the Catalans / Spaniards. We
can say they served to the partisan politics of those who convened them.
About the strictly Catalan referenda it can be said
that the reform of the Statute (2006) did not solve the problem that created us
former president Maragall, given the very low participation. Of the two illegal
referenda we can only learn that they have been a tool of social division, and
that to cure the wounds will require a lot of time and will.
The use of the referendum as a political
decision-making tool should be made after a calm social debate and with the
participation of all those involved, all of them. That is, you can not make
referenda in Catalonia or Extremadura that affect the lives of all Spaniards.
In addition, we must define previously what percentages of participation are
required and what percentages of the census should be reached by the option
mostly favored. This is to say that the half plus one of the votes
is not enough.
The Brexit
In fact, the title of this article is inspired by
the problem generated in the United Kingdom by the result of the referendum to
leave the EU. It is probable that a new referendum would produce results
diametrically opposed to the first one.
Today, the British are more aware of the implications
of the Brexit. With a participation of 72%, almost 52% were in 2016 in favour
of leaving the European Union and 48% in favour of remaining in it. We can imagine
that a small increase or decrease in participation, together with greater
knowledge, could mean a change in a political decision of enormous importance,
not only for the British, but also for all Europeans. It has to bi taken into
account that 52% favourable to the exit represent only 37.5% of the British
population. How can a decision of this magnitude be made without at least a
half of the census?
But the British are prisoners of a referendum where
the lies, as they later acknowledged, forced a decision that is weighing on
European politics; that is, it not only affects the British, but all Europeans
The
CatExit
Certainly, the electoral percentages 48/52
(secessionism / non-secessionism), inverted by the tricks (birlibirloque) of
the electoral system in 53/47 members of the Catalan Parliament, are very
similar to those of Brexit and cause big problems of difficult solution in
Spain, and it does not seem that a referendum is going to solve them. Above
all, all Spaniards are to be taken into account and clean rules of the game are
to be established ... Very unlikely things.
It’s necessary to democratize political life and
strengthen the State. But in Catalonia this is more a desire than a possibility.
It’s necessary to rescue ethics and impose a system of real democracy where all
the votes hare the same value, where all the political options have the same
presence in the media, and were the electoral expenses of the large parties are
limited, and the corruption suppressed.
It is a desire. It is not easy!
Nou Barris, Barcelona. November 16, 2018
* Author of the essay EL VALOR REAL DEL VOTO (The Real value of vote), Editorial El
Viejo Topo, 2016
* Author of the essay EL VALOR REAL DEL VOTO (The Real value of vote),
Editorial El Viejo Topo, 2016
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